The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market saw a slow start to the year in January 2026, largely due to freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall. Current data reveals a significant shift in market dynamics, characterized by above-average inventory levels and continued downward pressure on prices across all home types.

Across the TRREB service area, the average sale price fell to $973,289, a 6.5% decrease compared to January 2025. With months of inventory rising and sales volume declining, both buyers and sellers must adjust their expectations for the 2026 winter season.

What Should I Expect as a Buyer?

If you are looking to purchase a home in early 2026, you are entering a market that offers more leverage and selection than has been seen in recent years. Here is what you can expect:

Increased Inventory and Choice: Active listings across the TRREB area have climbed to 17,975, which is an 8.1% increase over January 2025. This provides you with more options to find a home that meets your specific needs without the frenetic competition of previous years.

Negotiation Power: For the first time in several cycles, buyers are successfully negotiating prices well below the asking amount. On average, homes are selling for 97% of the list price, a decrease from the 99% seen a year ago.

Significant Value in the Condo Market: If you are a first-time buyer, the "Condo Corner" data shows substantial price corrections. For instance, the average condo price in Oakville plummeted 20.8% to $625,321, and Durham saw an 18.3% drop to $455,810.

More Time to Decide: The average home is now staying on the market for 45 days, giving you more time to conduct due diligence and view multiple properties before making an offer.

What Should I Expect as a Seller?

Sellers are currently facing a more challenging environment that requires a strategic approach. To successfully move a property in this market, you should expect the following:

Patience is Mandatory: Properties are taking longer to sell across the board. The average market time has increased by 21.6% year-over-year. In Durham, the average days on market jumped 34.5% to 39 days, while Toronto properties average 45 days.

A "Buyer’s Market" Atmosphere: The months of inventory (MOI) for the entire TRREB area has risen to 5.83, up from 4.35 in January 2025. Higher MOI generally indicates that there is more supply than demand, putting sellers in a position where they must compete for a smaller pool of buyers.

Competitive Pricing is Essential: With total sales units down 19.3% year-over-year, buyers are being selective. To attract interest, your home must be priced accurately according to current downward trends, as average prices have dipped in almost every major region, including a 9.7% drop in Mississauga and an 8.6% drop in York Region.

Economic Context: While the Bank of Canada overnight rate has stabilized significantly lower than its 5.00% peak (currently hovering around 2.25%), the market has yet to see a resulting surge in sales volume, likely due to the slow seasonal start.

Regional Market Breakdown (Jan 2026)

The Bottom Line

Whether you are navigating the high inventory levels in Oakville (7.53 months of inventory) or looking for relative stability in Durham, the January 2026 market is defined by a slower pace and increased buyer opportunity. For sellers, professional staging and expert pricing are no longer optional—they are the keys to standing out in a crowded market.