April 2025 GTA Monthly Housing Report

Low Consumer Confidence Holds Back Buyers in March

• Heightened economic uncertainty caused by an escalating trade war with the U.S. led consumer confidence to drop to its lowest level of the past 20 years, despite easing inflation and further interest rate declines. As a result, buyers put their home purchasing decisions on pause, leading sales to fall to a more than 30-year low. With supply continuing to rise, market conditions softened considerably. However, there has been minimal pressure for owners to sell, with prices continuing to hold fairly steady.

• Sales Fall to More than 30-Year Low: Total MLS sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month, declining 23% to 5,011 transactions — 44% below the 10-year average and the lowest volume of March sales in over 30 years. For Q1-2025 as a whole, sales were down 21% annually, which followed a 30% annual increase in sales during Q4-2024.

• Active Listings Reach Record High: New listings grew 29% from a year ago to 17,263 units, marking the 15th consecutive month of annual growth. New listings rose to their highest March level in three years and were 7% above the 10-year average. The combination of growing supply and falling demand caused active listings at month-end to surge 89% from a year ago to 23,462 homes, surpassing the previous record high set during the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 (23,207).

• Market Conditions Softest Since Early 90s: The sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 29% in March, the lowest level for a March period in over 30 years and substantially below both the 10-year average of 55% and a balanced range of 40-60%. The 4.7 months of supply on the market was the highest for a March period since at least 1996, more than doubling the level recorded a year ago (1.9 months).

• Prices Holding Fairly Steady: Average selling prices increased 0.8% from February to a four-month high of $1,093,254. This represented a 2.5% decrease from a year ago and a 1.2% decline compared to two years ago. When compared to the market high in 2022, average prices were down 15.8%, but still 21.1% higher than five years ago at the onset of COVID-19. Overall, the 4.2% average annual price growth during the past five years was below the 10-year annual average growth rate of 7.0%.

• Detached Sales Fall Hardest: Detached home sales have been hit hardest so far this year, with activity down 25% annually in March and down 23% annually in Q1. Condo apartment sales posted annual declines of 23% in March and 20% in Q1, while sales declined 21% and 18% annually in March and Q1, respectively, for semis/rows/towns.

• Detached Listings More than Doubled: Active listings for detached homes shot up 129% from a year ago to 9,813 homes — the highest March level since 2009. Active listings for semis/rows/towns jumped 111% over the past year to 4,762 units, also the highest level since 2009. Condo apartment active listings continued to climb quickly for the third straight year, rising 48% annually and up 215% compared to 2022 to reach their highest March level on record at 8,659 units.

• Supply Remains Balanced for Semis/Rows/Towns: While the condo market remained the most unbalanced in March with 6.2 months of supply, detached supply increased fastest over the past year, more than tripling to reach 4.5 months. Semis/rows/towns was the only housing category to have a balanced level of supply in March at 3.4 months.

• Condo Prices Up Only 3.5% in Past 5 Years: Among housing types, condo apartment prices declined the most over the past year with a 2.6% decline to an average of $682,019 — the lowest March level in four years. Average prices for detached homes and semis/rows/towns were also at four-year lows for March periods at $1,439,268 (-1.8% annually) and $979,525 (-2.1% annually), respectively. Compared to the market peak in March 2022, average prices were down by similar amounts of 16.1% for semis/rows/towns, 15.7% for condos, and 15.2% for detached homes. However, since the start of COVID-19 five years ago in March 2020, average prices were up the most for detached homes (+29.9%) and semis/rows/towns (+25.5%), compared to five-year growth of only 3.5% for condo prices.

• Low-Rise Homes $1.5M+ Lead Monthly Sales Growth: While sales increased on a monthly basis between February and March for all housing types and price segments due to seasonal factors, growth was strongest for low-rise homes (detached/semi/row/town) priced between $1.5–1.99M with a 58% monthly increase, followed by a 40% monthly increase for low-rise homes priced from $600–699K and a 36% monthly increase in condos priced $1.5M-plus.

• Condos Under $500K See Strong Annual Sales Increase: Compared to a year ago, sales increased for three market segments, led by 40% annual growth in condo sales under $500K. Sales were also up year-over-year for condos selling for $1.5M-plus (+16%) and low-rise homes selling for under $600K (+14%). Sales fell the most over the past year for low-rise homes priced at $900K-plus and condos priced between $600K–$1.49M.

• Toronto Market Performing Better than 905 Region: The City of Toronto housing market continued to perform better than in the 905 Region of the GTA during March across all housing types. The annual decline in detached sales in Toronto was less than half the decline recorded in the 905 (-12% vs. -30%), with detached prices up 1% year-over-year compared to a 4% annual decline in detached prices in the 905. The 3.8 months of supply for detached homes in Toronto was a full month lower than in the 905 at 4.8 months.

• For semis/rows/towns, average prices in Toronto increased 2% from a year ago, led by a 6% increase in Toronto Central. Meanwhile, prices for semis/rows/towns declined 4% annually in the 905. While market conditions for condos were soft across the GTA, the City of Toronto experienced a smaller annual decline in sales (-22% vs. -28%), a smaller decrease in average prices (-2% vs. -5%) and a lower months of supply (6.0 vs. 6.4) compared to the 905 Region.

Key Takeaways

• Uncertainty was the overarching theme for the housing market in March as buyers continued to pause amid historic amounts of economic and political fog. With calls for an impending recession and significant job losses resulting from the global trade conflict initiated by the U.S., and an upcoming federal election at the end of April, big financial decisions such as home purchases have been put off for the time being.

• The economic fallout from the trade war with the U.S. is very difficult to predict at this point as the full extent of tariffs on both sides of the border continue to be negotiated, with announcements arriving almost daily. Once the federal election in Canada passes, the elected leadership will be able to fully focus on completing a new trade deal with the U.S. and introduce fiscal support as needed. In the near-term, expect continued volatility in financial markets, economic disruption as companies put investment decisions on hold and some pause production altogether, and likely job losses in certain segments of the economy hit hardest by tariffs. In March, the Canadian economy lost 33,000 jobs, which was the largest loss since January 2022.

• Until some of the economic and political fog clears, the housing market is expected to remain slow. Despite the Bank of Canada’s 25 basis point reduction to its key policy rate to 2.75% in March (the seventh consecutive cut since June 2024) and financial markets placing about a 50% chance of another rate cut this month, consumer confidence will need to improve first before we see a resumption in the upward trend for sales that occurred during the fall of 2024.

• In the absence of a severe recession, pent-up housing demand will continue to accumulate. In the interim, the market should become a bit more affordable for buyers. However, a large drop in prices is unlikely given their proven resilience during the past three years. Furthermore, the complexity of a trade war clouds the outlook for interest rates as tariffs also add to inflation, putting the Bank of Canada in a difficult balancing act with the economy. In that sense, interest rates may be near their bottom, as suggested by recent movements in bond yields.