GTA Real Estate Update: What Oakville, Burlington & Toronto Buyers Need to Know as We Head into the Holidays

As the holiday lights shine across Toronto, Oakville, and Burlington, the real estate market is settling into its year-end rhythm—and 2025 has been a year defined by patience, shifting momentum, and very real opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

Across the Greater Toronto Area, we’re on track to finish the year with just over 60,000 total home sales, down from 70,275 sales in 2024. Prices have continued to trend slightly lower year-over-year, and many buyers—especially first-time buyers and upsizers—have been taking a wait-and-see approach as they look for stronger economic clarity.

Locally, this has translated into:

• More choice in Toronto’s condo market

• Longer days on market in Oakville and Burlington

• Much more price sensitivity across all three cities

November Market Snapshot: What We’re Seeing on the Ground

Here’s how November shaped up across the GTA:

• 5,010 homes sold (down 15.8% year-over-year)

• 24,549 active listings (up 16.8% from last year)

• Average selling price: $1,039,458 (down 6.4% year-over-year)

In real terms:

• Toronto buyers are seeing more condos sit on the market, giving them room to negotiate—something we haven’t seen in years.

• Oakville and Burlington sellers are facing more competition, especially in the $1.2M–$2M range, where buyers are taking their time and insisting on value.

• Turnkey homes still move—but pricing and presentation must be spot-on.

Condo Market: Short-Term Softness, Long-Term Opportunity

Condo sales dipped 20% year-over-year in November, yet prices softened only 3.8%—a sign of underlying stability, especially in well-located Toronto buildings near transit, hospitals, and employment hubs.

Looking ahead:

• More new condo units are expected to complete in 2026, especially across Toronto and Mississauga corridors.

• However, late 2026 and beyond, new construction is projected to slow sharply, which historically leads to tightening supply and rising prices over time.

For investors and long-term homeowners in Toronto, Oakville, and Burlington, this future supply slowdown could become a meaningful advantage.

Economic Winds Are Shifting in a Positive Direction

There’s also some encouraging news nationally that supports local confidence. Jason Mercer, Chief Market Analyst for TRREB, recently shared that November’s employment and economic growth numbers were stronger than expected. Canada appears to be navigating global trade pressures better than anticipated, and here locally, major infrastructure investments—from transit expansion to the QEW/GTA corridor improvements—are expected to gradually boost housing demand.

For our region, this means:

• Toronto’s transit-connected neighbourhoods stand to benefit first

• Oakville and Burlington continue to attract upsizing families seeking space, schools, and lifestyle

• Buyer confidence is likely to improve gradually through 2026

What This Means for You Right Now

For Buyers

• You have more leverage than we’ve seen in years

• Negotiation power has returned

• Great opportunities exist in condos and move-up homes—especially for patient, prepared buyers

For Sellers

• Strategy matters more than ever

• Homes that are priced accurately and marketed properly are still selling

• Overpricing leads to stagnation quickly in this market

This isn’t a frozen market—it’s a recalibrated one. And those who understand the shifts are the ones who benefit most.

As we move into the holiday season, I want to thank you for continuing to trust me as your local market guide across Toronto, Oakville, and Burlington. Whether you’re planning a move in the new year or simply want to understand how these market changes affect your home’s value, I’m always here as a resource.

Wishing you a joyful, peaceful, and warm holiday season—and I look forward to connecting with you in the weeks ahead.