Urbanation April 2026 Report, GTHA rental market 2026, Toronto condo inventory Q1 2026

Sales Rise in March Despite Declining Consumer Confidence

• The outbreak of the Iran conflict caused already fragile consumer confidence to weaken during March. While housing sales increased slightly from last year, geopolitical instability, financial market volatility, surging gas prices and rising fixed-term mortgage rates all contributed to keeping activity well below normal. Despite less supply on the market as sellers became hesitant to list properties, prices continued to fall on an annual basis.

• Sales Increase for First Time in Six Months: Total MLS sales in March increased 2% from a year ago to 5,039 homes, the first year-over-year increase in six months. However, it was the second lowest March total of the past 30 years, with activity 43% below the 10-year average. For Q1 as a whole, sales were down 7% from last year.

• New Listings Fall for Third Straight Month: New listings dropped for the third straight month, falling 17% annually to 14,442 homes in March — 13% below the 10-year average. As a result, active inventory declined 8% from last year to 21,596 units, which was still the second-highest level since 2009 and 58% higher than the 10-year average.

• Inventory Declines to Four Months of Supply: Market conditions improved during March, while remaining soft from an historical perspective. The 35% ratio of sales-to-new listings rose from 29% last year, which was still well below the 10-year average of 52% and a balanced market range of 45-60%. Months of supply declined to a 15-month low of 4.3 months, a sharp decrease from the recent high of 5.8 months in January, but still more than double the 10-year average.

• Prices Decline Annually for 14th Straight Month: The improvement in market conditions helped sellers in price negotiations during March. The ratio of average sale price-to-list price increased to a nine-month high of 98%, with average prices moving up 0.9% month-over-month. On an annual basis, average prices declined for the 14th consecutive month, down 6.7% to $1,017,796. Despite average prices being down 22% over the past four years and falling to their lowest March level since 2020, annual growth averaged 5.1% during the past 10 years.

Market Segmentation & Key Takeaways

• Detached Homes Lead Sales Growth: Detached homes led growth in sales during March with a 5% annual increase. Condo sales edged up 2% from last year, while sales of semis/rows/towns decreased 4%. Compared to their 10-year averages, detached sales were down 45%, semi/row/town sales were down 42% and condo apartment sales were down 41%.

• Condo New Listings Fall for Seventh Straight Month: Condo apartments recorded the largest annual drop in new listings among housing types during March with a 19% decline, falling on an annual basis for the seventh straight month. Active listings for condos fell 12% annually to 7,673 units, which was still 90% higher than the 10-year average. Active listings for other housing types declined by lesser amounts over the past year, down 5% for detached homes and 7% for semis/rows/towns.

• Condo Supply Falls to 5 Months: Months of supply for condos dropped to 5.4 months from 6.3 months last year, while remaining well above a balanced level of 4 months. Detached supply fell from 4.6 to 4.2 months over the past year, while months of supply for semis/rows/towns was basically unchanged at 3.4 months.

• Condo Prices Drop 9% to Seven-Year Low: With inventory highest on a relative basis, condo prices experienced the largest annual decline in average prices among housing types during March. The 9.1% year-over-year decrease brought condo prices down to a seven-year low of $620,479. Average prices for semis/rows/towns declined 7.8% annually to $903,256, while detached prices held up best with a 6.4% annual decrease to an average of $1,342,375.

• Condo Sales Under $500K More than Doubles: A 62% share of all condos sold for under $600K in March, including a 36% share of sales that sold for under $500K — more than double the 17% share from a year ago. The volume of condos selling for under $500K increased 116% year-over-year, while all other price segments saw sales fall. Among condos selling for over $500K, activity held up best during the past year within the $1-1.49M price segment, with market share holding steady at 5%.

• Low-Rise Sales Increase for Homes Under $1M: For low-rise homes, all price segments under $1 million saw sales rise compared to a year ago, led by growth for the most affordably priced homes under $800K (+45%). Homes under $800K saw their share of low-rise sales increase from 16% to 24% over the past year. Meanwhile, the largest annual declines for low-rise sales were within the $1.5-1.749M (-29%) and $1.75-1.99M (-24%) price brackets.

• Detached Sales Rise Fastest in 905: Detached homes in the 905 Region saw a larger increase in sales in the past year compared to the City of Toronto (+9% vs. +1%), driven by 18% growth in Peel and York Regions. However, detached supply was lower in the City of Toronto than in the 905 (3.5 vs. 4.2 months), falling to only 2.9 months in Toronto East.

• Condo Sales Rise Fastest in Central Toronto and Durham: Annual growth in condo sales was strongest in Toronto Central (+13%) and Durham (+23%). Months of supply for condos was lowest in these two regions at 5.1 months in Toronto Central and 4.4 months in Durham.

Key Takeaways

• Consumer Confidence Impact: Despite readings plunging due to the Iran conflict, sales increased annually for the first time since September, suggesting underlying demand.

• Mortgage Rates: Five-year government bond yields rising 50 basis points has pushed fixed-term mortgage rates up, motivating some buyers to seek price reductions.

• Inventory Trends: While supply is trending down, prices face downward pressure as market conditions still favor buyers.

• Low-Rise Stability: Months of supply for low-rise homes is back near a balanced range of four months.

• Condo Market Turning Point: As completions slow and listings fall, the condo market appears to be turning a corner, especially for entry-level units under $500K.

• Policy Relief: Recent removal of HST for new condo buyers and 50% reduction in development charges could lower new unit costs by ~$100K.