October 2025 GTA Monthly Housing Report

After pausing in August as buyers awaited interest rate cuts and fresh inventory, the recovery in demand got back on track in September. With sales remaining low by historical standards and listings continuing to trend higher, prices were down from a year ago. However, prices have remained relatively steady overall during the past three years, and also more recently on a month-to-month basis. Stable prices, rising demand, and ample inventory suggest ideal conditions for buyers to enter the market.

Sales Rise for Third Month in a Row: Total MLS increased year-over-year for the third month in a row, rising 8% to 5,592 transactions — a four-year high for September periods. Seasonally adjusted sales were also up month-over-month for the fifth time in the past six months. Overall, third quarter sales reported annual growth of 7%. However, activity remained well below normal, with sales in September coming in at 24% below the 10-year average.

Growth in New Listings Slows as Inventory Reaches Record High: New listings continued to increase during September. However, year-over-year growth of 4% fell below annual growth in sales and represented the slowest annual pace of growth so far this year. At month-end, active listings on the market were 19% higher than last year at 29,394 homes — 67% above the 10-year average and a record-high for September periods.

Market Conditions Remain Soft: Demand remained low relative to supply during September as the ratio of sales-to-new listings at 29% was well below the 10-year average of 45% for the third year in a row, signalling a continuation of buyer’s market conditions. While months of supply remained steady month-over-month at 5.3 months, it continued to climb from a year ago (4.8 months) and was nearly double the 10-year average.

Prices Down for Eighth Month in a Row: Average selling prices declined year-over-year for the eighth month in a row during September, decreasing 4.7% to a four-year low of $1,059,377. However, prices were down only 2.9% compared to three years ago in September 2022, with a 6.8% total decrease compared to the peak period in 2021. Compared to the absolute market high in February 2022, average prices were down 20.6%. Seasonally adjusted prices were steady month-over-month, edging up 0.2% from August. Overall, prices have grown at an annual average rate of 5.7% over the past 10 years.

Price Indicators

Detached Sales Increase the Most: Annual sales growth in September was slightly stronger for detached homes (+10%) compared to semis/rows/towns (+7%) and condo apartments (+7%). Detached sales were 23% below the 10-year average, while sales for semis/rows/towns and condos were both 26% below the 10-year average.

Condo Supply Levelling Out: Active listings for condos increased 8% annually in September, its slowest pace of growth in over two years and considerably slower than growth in active listings for detached homes (+25%) and semis/rows/towns (+22%). Furthermore, new listings for condos declined 5% from a year ago, while increasing 8% for detached homes and 5% for semis/rows/towns.

Months of Supply Climbing for Low-Rise Homes: Months of supply for condos held steady year-over-year at 6.4 months, declining from the recent high of 7.1 months in May 2025 but remaining more than twice as high as the 10-year average of 3.1 months. Conversely, months of supply continued climbing for detached homes (5.1 months) and semis/rows/towns (4.3 months).

Condo Prices at 5-Year Low: Average prices for condos declined 4% annually in September, which was slightly less than the 5% year-over-year decreases for both detached homes and semis/rows/towns. At $655,231, average condo prices were at a five-year low, while average prices for detached homes ($1,359,030) and semis/rows/towns were at four-year lows. Since the market peak in early 2022, prices for detached homes and semis/rows/towns have corrected by a total of 24%, while condo prices have fallen by 19%.

Higher-End Properties Lead Monthly Sales Growth: Month-over-month sales growth for low-rise homes was led by the $1.5–1.749M price segment (+30%) and the $2M-plus segment (+29%), while condo sales increased the most between August and September for $1–1.49M units (+53%) and $1.5M-plus units (+29%), as well as units in the $700–799K range (+24%).

Entry-Level Home Sales See Strongest Annual Growth: Year-over-year sales growth remained strongest for the least expensive properties, with low-rise home sales under $600K up 77% and condo sales under $500K up 84%. Condo sales in the high-end above $1M also recorded strong annual increases, including 16% growth for units in the $1–1.49M segment and 29% growth for units in the $1.5M-plus segment.

Regional Insights

City of Toronto Outperforming 905 Region:

Sales for low-rise homes performed better in the City of Toronto than in the 905 Region of the GTA during September, with detached sales up 13% in Toronto (vs. 9% in the 905) and sales of semis/rows/towns up 28% in Toronto (vs. 0% growth in the 905). Furthermore, average detached prices in Toronto declined by only 1% from last year, while 905 Region detached prices fell 8%. Across all housing types (including condos), months of supply was lower in the City of Toronto than in the 905 Region, with the tightest inventory found among semis/rows/towns in Toronto West and Toronto East at 3.4 months of supply.

Toronto West Condo Prices Rise 4%:

Condo sales grew at the same annual pace in Toronto and the 905 Region at 7%, with growth led by sales in Toronto Central (+11%) and Peel Region (+15%). Despite the increase in sales, Peel Region condo prices were down 12% annually and condo inventory in Peel was highest in the GTA at 7.4 months. In Toronto West, average condo prices increased 4% year-over-year, with inventory below average at 6.0 months. Overall, condo prices held up better over the past year in the City of Toronto than the 905 Region (-4% vs. -6%).

Key Takeaways

The September results confirmed that the housing recovery trend, although gradual, is still intact. The third quarter experienced annual sales growth, with seasonally adjusted month-over-month activity generally rising since April.

Improvements to consumer confidence, which became rattled during the onset of the trade dispute with the U.S., as well as resumed interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada have helped bring some buyers off the sidelines. At the same time, a softening economy and still elevated housing prices have held demand to below-normal levels. Further interest rate cuts and progress made towards reaching a deal with the U.S. that limits the Canadian economy’s exposure to tariffs should keep the housing market recovery going.

On September 17, the Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a three-year low of 2.50%, marking the first rate cut since March. The Bank’s policy rate is now at half the level it was back in May 2024, which has brought mortgage rates down from over 6% to about 4%. The Bank of Canada cited a slowing economy, subdued inflation at under 2%, and more stability in U.S. tariffs for its decision to lower rates. Financial markets put 55% odds of another 25-basis-point cut at the next Bank of Canada meeting on October 29.

While demand should continue along its gradual path of recovery, it will likely take several months to bring inventory levels back into balance. With prices and interest rates at their lowest levels of the past few years, market conditions are ideal for buyers waiting on the sidelines. Annualized sales have been running at less than 70,000 units for the past 18 months — well below the long-term trend of over 90,000 sales, indicating substantial pent-up demand given the robust growth in population in recent years.

It has been particularly encouraging to see condo inventory begin to stabilize during the past couple months. As completions trend down next year and drop to virtually zero by the end of this decade, the condo market may represent a solid investment opportunity for those with at least a five-year time horizon.