October 2025 GTA Real Estate Market Update | What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know
Fall is officially here — the leaves are turning, the air feels crisp, and the real estate market across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is showing real signs of change. After a few unpredictable years, the market has finally found its balance. Prices are softening, listings are growing, and buyers are discovering something they haven’t felt in a long time — options.
Whether you’re a first-time buyer looking to enter the market, an upsizer ready for more space, or a seller wanting to make a strategic move, this fall’s market conditions are opening up fresh opportunities. Let’s take a closer look at what’s really happening and what it means for you.
A Market That’s Starting to Feel “Normal” Again
The warm days of summer might be behind us, but for homebuyers, the fall market feels surprisingly bright.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 6,138 home sales in October 2025, which is down 9.5% compared to October 2024. That might sound like a slowdown — and technically, it is — but there’s more to the story.
Sales are easing because buyers finally have choices again. Inventory levels rose sharply, giving people more time to browse, compare, and negotiate. TRREB recorded 27,808 active listings, up 17.2% year-over-year, bringing the months of inventory to 4.5 months.
In plain terms: if no new homes hit the market, it would take four and a half months to sell everything currently available. That’s what experts call a balanced market — where neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand.
For the first time in years, the pressure has eased off. Homes aren’t flying off the shelf in a week, and bidding wars aren’t the default. Buyers can breathe. Sellers can plan. And everyone can make more informed decisions.
Prices Are Settling — and That’s a Good Thing
The average selling price in October 2025 came in at $1,054,372, down 7.2% from the same month last year. It’s not a crash — it’s a correction that’s allowing the market to catch its breath.
A drop like this may feel unsettling on paper, but in reality, it’s helping restore balance and affordability. After several years of intense growth driven by low supply and high demand, prices are now aligning with what buyers can reasonably afford in today’s lending environment.
And as TRREB’s Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted, “The monthly mortgage payment for an average-priced GTA home continued to trend lower in October, benefitting from both lower borrowing costs and lower selling prices. This means more buyers can now afford to purchase a home that meets their housing needs.”
That’s a win for buyers who were previously priced out — and a signal to sellers that realistic pricing is the key to getting deals done in today’s market.
The Impact of Lower Borrowing Costs
One of the biggest shifts this season came from the Bank of Canada’s latest rate adjustment. After years of aggressive hikes to fight inflation, the recent easing of lending rates is finally bringing some relief to homebuyers.
Lower borrowing costs don’t just improve monthly affordability — they boost confidence. When buyers feel secure in their financial outlook, they’re more willing to make big decisions. That renewed confidence is already showing up in increased showing activity and more mortgage pre-approvals.
For those who’ve been waiting for the “right moment,” this fall might just be it. The combination of lower rates, more listings, and stable prices has created a window of opportunity we haven’t seen in quite some time.
Big News for First-Time Buyers
There’s even more good news for first-time homebuyers — and it’s coming straight from Queen’s Park.
The Ontario government has proposed a rebate of the full 8% provincial portion of HST on new homes priced up to $1 million. When combined with existing provincial relief programs, this could mean up to $80,000 in savings on a new build.
And if the federal government’s removal of its 5% HST portion is implemented as planned, first-time buyers could be looking at a total savings of up to $130,000.
This kind of incentive could make a huge difference for those entering the market for the first time — and it’s also a smart move to encourage new home construction. More builds mean more supply, which helps keep long-term affordability in check.
A More Balanced Market Is Good for Everyone
While price drops and slower sales might sound like a negative headline, balance in the market is actually healthy.
Here’s why:
Market Indicator October 2024 October 2025 Change
Home Sales 6,782 6,138 -9.5%
Average Price $1,136,474 $1,054,372 -7.2%
Active Listings 23,725 27,808 +17.2%
Months of Inventory 3.5 4.5 +28.6%
This rebalancing is giving everyone — buyers, sellers, and investors — time to think strategically. Buyers can take their time to find the right home without overpaying. Sellers can adjust expectations and price competitively. And investors can spot opportunities in a market that’s slowly normalizing.
When markets are more balanced, long-term stability follows. That’s what we’re seeing play out right now across the GTA.
Why Fall 2025 Could Be the Perfect Time to Move
With softer prices, rising inventory, and more flexible borrowing conditions, this fall’s market presents one of the most balanced playing fields we’ve seen in years.
If you’re a buyer, you have:
More inventory to choose from
Less competition at offer time
The ability to negotiate price or conditions
If you’re a seller, you have:
A larger pool of motivated, qualified buyers
More predictable market data to guide pricing
The chance to make a strong move before winter
And if you’re an investor, this moment offers the clarity you’ve been waiting for — realistic pricing, improving yields, and potential upside as confidence returns in 2026.
The Bottom Line
This fall, the GTA market feels different — calmer, fairer, and more accessible. With borrowing costs trending lower and new listings keeping pace, buyers and sellers alike can move forward with confidence instead of fear.
It’s not about timing the market perfectly — it’s about understanding where the market stands right now and acting with strategy.
If you’ve been on the fence, wondering whether to buy, sell, or wait — this could be your moment to step forward.
Let’s Make Your Next Move a Smart One
The numbers tell one part of the story. The rest comes down to your goals, your lifestyle, and your timeline. Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, move up to something bigger, or sell with confidence in today’s market — you don’t have to figure it out alone.
Let’s have a real conversation about your next move.
We’ll walk through your options, review the latest data, and map out a strategy that makes sense — not just for today, but for your future.
📞 Ready to take the next step? Let’s talk.
👉 Contact Quynh Tran, Broker & Managing Partner at Q Real Estate Group, Royal LePage Signature Realty — and let’s turn this balanced market into your best opportunity yet.
