GTA Housing Market Update 2026: Condo Prices Hit 5-Year Low

Economic Uncertainty Held Buyers Back in Fourth Year of Downturn

• The GTA housing market completed its fourth year of the current downturn as sales declined to their lowest level in 25 years. While activity entered 2025 with increased momentum as falling interest rates and lower prices began luring buyers back to the market, fears of the economic outcomes of a trade war initiated by the U.S. caused confidence to quickly deteriorate. With demand on hold and more supply arriving on the market, sellers relented to competitive pressures and price declines steepened. While heightened uncertainty will likely linger into 2026, improved affordability and pent-up housing demand should result in a better performance for the market this year.

• Sales in 2025 were Lowest in 25 Years: MLS sales in December totalled 3,697 transactions, declining 9% from last year and falling 23% below the 10-year average, but remaining above December totals in 2022 and 2023. Sales declined on an annual basis for the third month in a row, resulting in a Q4 year-over-year decrease of 12%. For 2025 as a whole, sales fell 11% from 2024 to a total of 62,433 transactions, the lowest annual total since 2000 and 26% below the 30-year average. As a ratio of the GTA population, sales in 2025 were at their lowest in more than 30 years.

• New Listings Hit Record High in 2025: Growth in new listings continued to taper off in December with a 2% annual increase to 5,299 units, which was only modestly higher (+7%) than the 10-year average. New listings totalled 186,753 homes over the entire course of 2025, rising 10% from 2024 to reach their highest annual total on record. However, as a ratio of the total housing stock, new listings in 2025 remained close to the 30-year average. At year-end, the 17,005 active listings available on the market was at its highest since 2008, increasing 17% from year-end 2024 and rising 79% above the 10-year average.

• A Buyer’s Market in 2025: The sales-to-new listings ratio, which typically reaches its highest point of the year during December as sellers remove listings and await seasonal increases in demand in the new year, was 70% — below the level from a year ago (78%) and the second lowest December level of the past 30 years (behind 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis). The sales-to-new listings ratio for all of 2025 was 33% — a more than 30-year low and roughly half the 30-year average of 60%. A balanced market range is between approximately 45% and 60%. Months of Supply rose to 4.6 months in December and averaged 4.9 months during 2025, double their long-term averages. A balanced market is approximately 3–4 months of supply.

• Prices Fall to Nearly 5-Year Low: Average selling prices in December decreased year-over-year for the 11th month in a row, down 5.1% to their lowest level since January 2021 at $1,006,735. Average prices fell 13.2% in the past four years and by a total of 24.8% since the market peak in February 2022. On average for 2026, prices declined by 4.7%, a steeper decrease than in 2024 (-1.0%) and the third consecutive year of annual declines — the first time this has happened since the 1990s. Despite the various cycles the housing market has endured, the 30-year average for price growth in the GTA was 5.9%.

• Detached Sales were Most Stable in December: Sales in December held up best compared to a year earlier for detached homes, which dipped 2%. Condo apartment sales were down 11% annually in December to a two-year low, while sales for semis/rows/towns fell 18% from last year to a three-year low.

• Condo Sales See Largest Decline for Second Straight Year: For the second straight year, demand slowed the most for condo apartments in 2025 as total annual sales fell 15% from 2024, dropping 33% below their 10-year average to a 22-year low. Sales for semis/rows/towns were most stable in 2025 with a 9% annual decline, while sales for detached homes decreased 11% last year.

• Condo Prices Fall to Five-Year Low: Average prices for condo apartments were brought down to a five-year low of $628,029 in December, decreasing 7.3% annually and by a total of 11.5% over the past four years. Annual price declines were also recorded in December for semis/rows/towns (-7.4% to $894,923) and detached homes (-5.9% to $1,302,980). Detached homes experienced the largest four-year price drop of 18.5%, followed by semis/rows/towns with a 15.2% decline since 2021.

• Prices for Semis/Rows/Towns have Performed Best: Overall, prices declined by similar amounts during 2025 across all housing types but held up best for semis/rows/towns with a 4.4% average decline, compared to average decreases of 5.2% for detached homes and 5.1% for condos. Price performance over the past decade has produced average annual growth of 6.6% for semis/rows/towns, and 6.1% for both detached homes and condos.

• Share of Condos Selling for Under $500K Doubled in 2025: The share of condos selling for under $500K doubled from 12% in 2024 to 24% in 2025. This occurred as sales volume under $500K increased 73% last year. The share of condos selling between $500-599K remained unchanged at 30%, while the most expensive units selling for $1.5M-plus grew from a 2% to 3% market share. All other condo price segments saw reduced market share last year.

• Lower Price Points Saw Largest Increase in Activity: The only price segments to see an increase in market share during 2025 were homes selling for under $800,000. This was driven by a 23% annual increase in sales for homes priced under $600,000 and a 6% increase for those between $600,000 and $799,999. Conversely, the $1.0M+ market saw a 21% decline in sales volume compared to 2024.

• Sales Shift Toward More Affordable Segments: The combined share of homes selling for under $800,000 rose from 38% in 2024 to 44% in 2025. This shift reflects both the impact of higher borrowing costs and the increased availability of lower-priced condo inventory. The luxury segment (over $2.0M) saw its market share pull back as high-end buyers remained more cautious throughout the year.