May 2025 GTA Monthly Housing Report

Trade War & Federal Election Kept Buyers on the Sidelines in April

Homebuyers remained on the sidelines in April due to heightened economic uncertainty from the trade conflict with the U.S., while also waiting with anticipation of a tightly contested federal election. Buyers took a cue from the Bank of Canada, which paused interest rates last month while citing “pervasive uncertainty” for the decision. As sellers became a bit more anxious as demand fell and competition grew from the near-record number of listings on the market, some downward pressure on prices materialized.

Sales Lowest Since 1996: Total MLS sales of 5,601 homes were at their lowest April level since 1996 (outside of the pandemic in 2020), with activity declining 23% year-over-year and falling 37% below the 10-year average. It was the fifth straight month of annual sales declines, and the third straight month of declines exceeding 20%. Year-to-date sales totaling 18,496 homes represented a 21% annual decrease and the slowest January–April period since 1996.

Active Listings Approach All-Time High: The volume of new listings during April increased on an annual basis for the 16th consecutive month, rising 8% from a year ago to 18,836 homes — a three-year high and 11% above the 10-year average. The number of active listings available at month-end rose 54% over the past year to 27,386 homes, the highest April level in at least 30 years and nearing the all-time high reached during the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in October 2008 (28,473).

Market Conditions Strongly Favour Buyers: The sales-to-new listings ratio of 30% in April remained at a more than 30-year low for the second straight month, falling well below the 10-year average of 52% and a balanced range of 40–60%. Inventory on the market was equal to 4.9 months of supply in April, the highest level in over 30 years and two-and-a-half times higher than the 10-year average of 2.0 months of supply.

Prices Decline by Most in Two Years: Average selling prices decreased 4.1% year-over-year in April to $1,107,463, the third straight month of annual price declines and the steepest in two years. Average prices in April were down for the third year in a row, declining by a total of 12% during that time, but remained 35% higher than the average from five years ago in April 2020. In the past 10 years, average prices increased by 6.6% annually.

Condo Sales See Biggest Annual Decline: Condo apartment sales fell 30% annually to 1,430 units, the lowest April level since 2001 (outside of 2020) and 37% below the 10-year average. Detached sales declined 22% annually to 2,556 homes, which was the slowest April since at least 1996 (outside of 2020) and 39% below the 10-year average. Sales for semis/towns/rows held up best over the past year with a 19% annual decrease, although falling to their lowest April level since 2000 (outside of 2020) and 33% below the 10-year average.

Detached Active Listings Reach 15-Year High: Active listings for detached homes grew 56% from a year ago and 60% higher than the 10-year average to their highest April level since 2010 at 11,975 homes. Active listings for semis/rows/towns grew the most in the past year with a 72% increase to 5,627 homes, more than doubling the 10-year average to reach their highest April level in at least 30 years. Active listings for condo apartments broke another record in April at 9,702 units, rising 42% annually and 126% above the 10-year average.

Condo Supply Nearing 7 Months: The condo market had 6.8 months of supply in April, more than doubling the level from a year ago (3.3). Detached months of supply also doubled from last year, rising from 2.3 to 4.6 months. With less than four months of supply, inventory remained balanced for semis/row/towns in April.

Condo Prices Drop 7% Annually to 5-Year Low: With the weakest market conditions of all housing types in April, average prices for condo apartments fell 6.8% annually to $678,048 — the lowest April level in five years. Average prices for detached homes decreased 5.4% from a year ago to $1,431,495, which was a four-year low for April periods, while average prices for semis/rows/towns held up best with a 3.4% year-over-year decline to $976,947, also a four-year low.

Low-Rise Homes Under $1M Lead Monthly Sales: Total sales increased 12% on a monthly basis between March and April due to seasonal factors, with sales growing the most for low-rise homes (detached/semi/row/town) priced between $900–999K with a 32% increase. Relatively strong month-over-month sales growth was also recorded for low-rise homes priced $800–899K (+21%) and $2M-plus (+21%). In the condo segment, sales increased the most for the least expensive units under $500K (+15%) and higher-end units priced $1–1.49M (+22%).

Condo Sales Under $500K Up 45% Annually: Compared to a year ago, sales increased the most for the least expensive homes represented by condos priced under $500K with 45% annual growth. Sales were also up compared to a year ago for entry-level low-rise homes under $700K. The steepest annual sales declines were found among condos priced between $600–999K at roughly 50%. In the low-rise segment, sales declined the most over the past year for the most expensive homes priced $1.5M+ at roughly 30%.

Sales Activity Steady for Detached Homes in Toronto: Detached sales in the City of Toronto decreased only 2% annually in April, with sales in Toronto East up 3% from a year ago. Meanwhile in the 905 Region, sales for detached homes dropped 27% annually. Average prices for detached homes were down 7% in both Toronto and the 905 Region, although Toronto had a lower amount of inventory at 3.5 months versus 4.9 in the 905.

Semis/rows/towns also performed better in Toronto than in the 905 Region, with Toronto sales down 9% compared to a 22% decrease in the 905 and average prices decreasing 2% versus a 5% decline in the 905. For condo apartments, market performance was similar in both Toronto and the 905 Region. Condo sales declined 30% annually in Toronto and 32% annually in the 905, and average prices decreased 7% annually in Toronto and 6% annually in the 905. Condo inventory was nearly the same at 6.8 months in Toronto and 6.7 months in the 905.

Uncertainty continued to plague the GTA housing market in April. Constant and ever-changing headlines regarding the U.S. trade conflict, as well as the federal election falling at the end of last month, caused buyers to put plans on hold temporarily. Without further reductions to interest rates last month, there was little to motivate buyers into action as they waited for some of the economic and political fog to clear.

However, a recent reading of consumer confidence indicated that Canadians are growing more optimistic about the economy following the results of the election. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index was still showing a negative reading during the first week of May but reached its highest level in nine weeks. The rise in optimism also coincided with a better stock market performance, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index on a five-week winning streak.

The improvement in consumer confidence should prevent any further worsening in home sales in the near-term. However, optimism may be short-lived if the trade war with the U.S. escalates or is prolonged. It appears that tariffs have already started to weigh on the economy, with notable job losses in the manufacturing and trade industries as some export-dependent firms have paused operations. The unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.9%, its highest level since January 2017.

As a mainly service-based economy, the GTA doesn’t have much direct exposure to U.S. trade. However, with large cyclical industries such as financial services, real estate, and construction, indirect effects on the local economy from a possible recession are significant.

Financial markets are expecting two further 25 basis point cuts to the Bank of Canada’s key leading rate this year, while five-year Government of Canada bond yields have been trending slightly higher over the past month, suggesting that mortgage rates could be close to their bottom for this cycle.