GTA Housing Market Report December 2025 | Prices, Sales Trends & Inventory Insights

Buyers Await Lower Prices and Less Economic Uncertainty

The GTA housing market slowed further in November as buyers failed to respond to two consecutive interest rate cuts in September and October. With interest rates at their lowest in over three years and expected to hold steady in the coming months, buyers are remaining patient as economic uncertainty and ample amounts of inventory continue to weigh on prices and improve affordability. In a softer market environment, the typical seasonal slowdown heading into the winter became more pronounced.

Sales on Track for Lowest Annual Total Since 2000:

Total MLS sales declined on an annual basis for the second consecutive month in November, decreasing 16% to 5,010 homes. While activity was higher than November levels in 2022 (4,830) and 2023 (4,528), sales were 28% below the 10-year average. The market is on track for approximately 62,000 sales in 2025, well below the 10-year average of approximately 90,000 sales and marking the lowest annual total since 2000.

Active Listings Highest Since 2008:

New listings also declined in November with a 4% decrease — the first annual decline in 23 months. At 11,134 homes, new listings were in line with their 10-year average. However, this wasn’t enough to prevent active listings at month-end from continuing to grow, rising 17% year-over-year to 24,549 units. Active listings were 69% higher than the 10-year average and at their highest November level since 2008.

Between a Balanced and Buyer’s Market:

The sales-to-new listings ratio reached its highest level so far this year at 45%, the lower boundary of a balanced market. Nonetheless, the ratio remained below the level from a year ago (51%) and substantially below the 10-year average of 63%. Similarly, the 4.9 months of supply on the market was near the 5-month threshold between a balanced and buyer’s market, but up significantly from last year (3.5) and the 10-year average (2.4).

Prices Still 24% Higher than Pre-Pandemic Average:

Buyers were able to negotiate prices down to an average of 97% of list price in November, pushing average prices to their lowest level so far this year at $1,039,458. Prices decreased 6.4% annually to a five-year low for November periods, while remaining 24% higher than the pre-pandemic average in November 2019 ($835,695). Despite declining 11% in the past four years, the 10-year average annual growth rate remained solid at 5.6%.

Condo Sales Fall the Most:

Sales of condo apartments were impacted the most, falling 22% annually in November. This compared to smaller annual sales declines of 15% for detached homes and 12% for semis/rows/towns. Condo sales were 33% below their 10-year average, while detached and semi/row/town sales were down 27% and 25%, respectively, from their 10-year averages.

Listings Growing Slowest for Condos:

New listings for condos fell 13% annually in November, the largest year-over-year drop in nearly three years. This helped to slow growth in active condo listings to a 4% annual pace, down from annual growth of nearly 50% during the first quarter of the year. Active listings grew fastest for detached homes with a 26% annual increase, followed by 18% annual growth in active listings for semis/rows/towns.

Condo Supply Above 6 Months:

There was 6.3 months of supply on the market for condo apartments in November, in line with levels seen throughout 2025 but well above the level from a year ago (4.8) and more than double the 10-year average (2.8). While supply was more balanced for detached homes at 4.8 months, it rose quickly compared to a year ago (3.3 months). Supply remained the most balanced for semis/rows/towns at 3.9 months, although reaching its highest November level since 2008.

Condo Prices Holding Up Best:

Average prices for condo apartments reached a five-month high of $663,290 in November, representing the only housing category to see prices increase month-over-month. Furthermore, condo prices decreased by the smallest amount among housing categories with a 4% year-over-year decline. This compares to an 8% annual decline in detached prices and a 6% annual decline in semi/row/town prices. Compared to the pre-pandemic average in November 2019, condo prices were up 9%, while detached prices were up 30% and semi/row/town prices were up 23%.

High-End Condos See Monthly Sales Growth:

Consistent with typical seasonal trends, sales decreased across almost all housing segments and price ranges between October and November, with the exception of higher-end condos. Condos priced at $1.5M-plus saw sales rise 10% month-over-month, although representing only 3% of the market. The largest monthly drop in condo sales occurred for units priced $800-899K (-41%), while low-rise sales fell the most for homes priced between $1.25M and $1.749M (-32%).

Entry Level Condo Sales Rise Fastest Over Past Year:

On an annual basis, sales grew for three market segments: low-rise homes priced under $800K, condos priced under $500K, and condos priced $1.5M-plus. The fastest annual growth in sales was recorded for the most affordable product segments, led by a 52% increase in low-rise homes under $600K and a 76% jump in condos under $500K. Units under $500K represented nearly one-third (32%) of all condo sales in November, more than doubling the 14% share from a year ago.

Sales Rise for Semis/Rows/Towns in Toronto:

Detached sales experienced a smaller annual decrease in the City of Toronto compared to the 905 Region (-11% vs. -16%). For semis/rows/towns, sales in Toronto increased 1% annually in November while declining 18% in the 905. Condo sales declined annually by similar amounts in Toronto (-22%) and the 905 Region (-21%).

Central Toronto Condo Prices Increase:

Across all categories of housing, average prices held up best for condo apartments in the City of Toronto, decreasing only 2% annually. This included a 1% year-over-year increase in average prices in Toronto Central. In the 905 Region, average condo prices decreased 9% annually.

Condo Supply Reaches Nearly 9 Months in Peel:

Market conditions remained tightest for semis/rows/towns in the City of Toronto, where supply was equal to 3.3 months. In Toronto East, there was just 2.5 months of supply on the market, helping average prices remain relatively steady with a 2% year-over-year decrease. Meanwhile, supply levels were highest for condo apartments in Peel Region at 8.7 months, leading to a 14% annual drop in average prices.

Key Takeaways

While the November numbers failed to show an overall improvement, the market remained in a stronger position towards the end of the year compared to the beginning of the year. The better sales numbers that emerged during the late spring and summer months following the first quarter plunge as the trade conflict with the U.S. commenced appear to have stalled out as buyers bide their time, anticipating further price decreases.

With mortgage rates falling back to a more-than-three-year low of roughly 4%, and the Bank of Canada expected to remain on hold for the time being (confirmed with their December decision to keep rates unchanged), further improvements in affordability are likely to come by way of price decreases.

Elevated inventories continue to provide buyers with negotiation power as demand largely resides on the sidelines. However, as economic conditions stabilize (the unemployment rate dropped in November and Q3 GDP growth rebounded), buyer confidence will grow and demand should re-enter the market during 2026. This should help to create more balanced conditions and stability for prices, suggesting the next few months could represent the ideal buying opportunity. This is particularly the case for buyers that favour fixed-term mortgages, which appear to be heading higher due to recent increases in bond yields following the better-than-expected performance in the economy.

Mortgage affordability (as measured by the average mortgage payment associated with buying the average priced home) has improved by approximately 30% in the past two years to its best level in four years. By all accounts, sales should be substantially higher than current levels, particularly considering the vast amount of pent-up demand that has accumulated over the past few years.

It is encouraging to see that some segments of the market are performing well.

Demand for entry-level homes (such as condos under $500K and houses under $800K) is rising quickly as buyers take advantage of prices not seen in years. Furthermore, market conditions remain tight for the middle part of the market represented by semis/rows/towns, particularly within the City of Toronto. Importantly, condo prices are beginning to firm up in the Toronto core as the slowdown in construction has resulted in fewer new completions. These trends bode well for a more general improvement in the market next year.